A surprising disconnect in the machinery market

In a recent analysis on AgWeb, Greg Peterson, better known as Machinery Pete, highlighted a trend he says is unprecedented in his 36 years of tracking auction prices. Historically, whenever auction values for used farm equipment surged, it coincided with stronger demand for new machinery. This time, that relationship has broken down.

After a steep decline through much of 2024, auction prices for quality used equipment stabilized in late February of 2025. That steady tone held through most of the year. Then, as November and December arrived, prices jumped sharply higher. What makes this moment unique is that new equipment sales have not followed suit. Instead, they continue to lag, even as auction values climb.

Why used equipment is winning the spotlight

Peterson points to several forces driving this shift. New machinery prices rose dramatically during 2021, 2022, and 2023, with increases often ranging from 15 to 25 percent. Those higher price levels never retreated. At the same time, grain farmers have been tightening their belts, delaying major capital purchases and stretching the life of their existing fleets.

With fewer producers willing to buy new, demand has concentrated on very specific used machines. Buyers are targeting exactly what they want and are willing to pay for it. Well cared for pre-DEF and pre Tier IV equipment has been especially sought after, pushing values to levels few expected given the broader caution in the farm economy.

Record sales tell the story

Recent auction results underline Peterson’s point. Late in 2025, a one-owner 2007 Peterbilt 379 with just over 20,000 miles brought $280,000 in North Dakota, setting a record for that model. In Iowa, a 2011 Case IH 6088 combine with low separator hours sold for $178,000, the highest auction price for that machine in more than a decade. A 2009 John Deere 8295R with just over 1,000 hours reached $230,000 at the same sale, marking a multi-year high. In Nebraska, a 2000 John Deere 8210 achieved a record price of $133,250.

Importantly, this strength has not been limited to older iron. Later model equipment has also been setting records. In Saskatchewan, a 2025 Case IH AF11 combine sold for the equivalent of more than $840,000 US dollars, the highest auction price ever recorded for a combine. In that same auction, a 2024 Brent 2598 grain cart on tracks brought nearly $185,000 US dollars, setting a new benchmark for grain carts.

A K-shaped economy in ag country

Peterson describes the current landscape as a K-shaped economy. Many producers are cautious, cutting back and avoiding large purchases. At the same time, there remains a group of financially strong farmers, often older operators with solid balance sheets, who are willing and able to pay for exactly what they want. That split is clearly visible in the auction results, where top-end equipment continues to perform extremely well for sellers.

What this means heading into 2026

Looking ahead, there are reasons to believe this trend could continue and even intensify. Some end-of-year auctions performed better than expected, despite widespread belt-tightening. As government bridge payments are scheduled to begin hitting bank accounts, additional liquidity could flow into the market. That may further support demand for high-quality used machinery, particularly for machines that are hard to replace or unavailable new without long waits and high price tags.

Peterson also leaves the market with a warning worth considering. The extended slowdown in new equipment sales over the past 18 to 24 months is beginning to create a shortage of good used equipment. Fewer new machines entering the system today means fewer late-model used machines tomorrow. If buyers think used prices feel high now, this developing shortage suggests the pressure on values may be far from over.

For sellers with premium equipment, the message is clear. Even in a cautious farm economy, the right machine in the right condition is still commanding serious attention and strong money.

Tune in tomorrow to watch Greg Peterson on Tractor Tuesday Live!